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Collection of Exogenous Variables

In our approach exogenous assumptions are reduced by defining a technology-open model structure that does not only consider processes that are generally expected to prevail on the market under current assumptions on future developments but defines multiple parallel technologies that can also highly depend on the interactions between sectors. However, the optimization problem still needs various exogenous parameters that should be consistent across different sectors. Therefore, these exogenous values that can be related to each other are collected in the list below.

General developments

  • Macroeconomic development
  • Demographic development
  • Development of living and usable space
  • Development of passenger & freight transport performance
  • Development of primary energy prices

Exogenous demand

  • Households & tertiary sector: space heating, hot water, electricity
  • Industry: production volumes, gross value added
  • Transport: passenger-kilometers, tonne-kilometers

Political framework

  • Renewable energy target
  • Emission targets
  • Supply reliability of imports

Technological values

  • Installed capacities on first milestone year
  • Decomissioning of installed capacities by lifetime
  • Expansion limits per milestone year
  • Efficiencies
  • Energy-to-power ratios for storage systems
  • Emission values
  • Area potentials: Assumptions for allocation to technologies with conflicting objectives (e.g. biomass resources)

Economic values

  • Investment costs
  • Fixed costs
  • Variable costs
  • Weighted average costs of capital (harmonized across all sectors)

Key Resources

  • Annual potential
  • Hourly potential
  • Subsidy costs

Import / Export

  • Electricity and commodity prices of neighbouring countries
  • Restrictions on all imports from neighboring countries
  • Ccost-potential ratios for imports of PtG and PtL products